WASHINGTON, DC — Israelis are not the only ones closely watching Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu’s visit to the White House and his address to a Joint Session of Congress this week.
So are Sunni Arab leaders in the Middle East and North Africa, along with hundreds of millions of Arab Muslims throughout the region.
What exactly are they watching for?
Let me unpack that question for a bit in this column.
ARABS SHOCKED AS KNESSET FORMALLY REJECTS TWO STATE SOLUTION
Many Arabs were shocked when the Israeli parliament — known as the Knesset — last week voted overwhelmingly to reject a two-state solution and the immediate establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state.
Netanyahu and his party led the charge, even though Bibi endorsed the concept of a demilitarized Palestinian state during a famous speech at Bar Ilan University in 2009.
As recently as January 2020, Netanyahu enthusiastically embraced then-President Donald J. Trump’s vision of a modified, demilitarized Palestinian state as described in Trump’s famous “Deal of the Century” peace plan, formally known as the “Peace To Prosperity Plan.”
But times have changed.
It wasn’t just Netanyahu and his right wing Likud party who voted to oppose ever agreeing to a two state solution last week.
Fully 68 out of 120 members of the Knesset voted in favor of rejecting a Palestinian state.
Only 9 members voted against the resolution.
Among those voting in favor was Benny Gantz.
Gantz is the leader of a popular center-right party.
He previously served as the chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Forces and Israel’s Defense Minister, and recently resigned from serving in a national unity government— and in the War Cabinet — with Netanyahu.
Gantz has long been on record as being open to a Palestinian state, as long as it was demilitarized.
But he and his party colleagues all voted against the two state solution.
Yair Lapid, the Leader of the Israeli Opposition — and the head of the largest center-Left party in the country — ducked the vote.
Lapid, too, has long been on record as being open to a Palestinian state, under the right conditions.
But he didn’t want to go on record affirming that position.
The moves by Gantz and Lapid provide conclusive evidence to the Arab world of just how much the Hamas invasion and slaughter on October 7th has changed Israeli society and politics.
NOW WHAT?
The problem is that most Arabs strongly support the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state — now more than ever.
Many are grieved by, and furious over, the images they see on the Qatar-based Al Jazeera satellite TV network — the most popular news network in the Muslim world — of the destruction the IDF has wrought in the Gaza Strip and the suffering of the residents of Gaza.
The vast majority of Arabs strongly oppose Netanyahu and want to see him removed from power.
What’s more, most resent the close political, economic, and military ties between Israel and the United States.
Many were hoping President Joe Biden would use this visit to further criticize — even humiliate — Netanyahu, cut off U.S. arms shipments to Israel, and demand that Israel give in and accept the creation of a Palestinian state.
So, many are asking, “Now what?”
They see Biden so physically, mentally, and politically weak that he has dropped out of the presidential campaign.
They see Biden so weak that he is unlikely to confront Netanyahu, much less publicly castigate him.
What’s more, they see no prospect of Biden being able to force a Palestinian state down Israel’s throat.
CRITICAL QUESTIONS THAT ARABS ARE NOW ASKING
In this context, then, Arabs are now watching Netanyahu’s trip — and the fast-changing Americans political dynamics — as closely as ever.
These are the critical questions that they especially want answers to:
What will be Vice President Kamala Harris’ approach towards Israel and the current war? Will she be tougher and harsher on Israel than Biden has been, even though her husband is Jewish?
How will Democrats on Congress deal with Netanyahu — will they praise him or blast him?
What is Netanyahu’s plan to end the war in Gaza — and what will happen the day after the war is over?
How soon will Netanyahu pull all Israeli military forces out of the Gaza Strip?
Who will govern Gaza next — and will the world agree to rebuild Gaza?
Is Netanyahu about to invade Lebanon, or will Hezbollah back off, stop firing missiles at Israel, and pull its terrorists forces far away from the border of Israel?
Will Netanyahu lay out both a compelling vision and a convincing plan to normalize relations with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, or will the prospects of such a deal be scuttled?
And what is Netanyahu’s future — are new elections coming soon and will Netanyahu and his party be washed out to sea amidst a political tsunami?
WHAT DOES THE ROAD AHEAD LOOK LIKE?
All of these are important and complicated questions.
So much change is happening that’s it’s difficult to discern what the road ahead looks like.
In the coming days, in addition to attending and covering Netanyahu’s address to Congress, I’ll be reaching out to a wide range of Arab diplomats, policy experts, and religious leaders to get their thoughts and reactions.
Rest assured, I’ll be sharing what I learn with all of you so please keep a close eye on ALL ARAB NEWS and our social media channels.
